By Hugh Courtney

In the middle of a altering economic system, such a lot executives proceed to exploit a method toolkit designed for yesterday's extra reliable industry. for that reason, techniques emerge that neither deal with the hazards nor reap the benefits of the possibilities that come up in hugely doubtful occasions. Now, McKinsey & corporation advisor Hugh Courtney argues that managers needs to stream past the superseded "all-or-nothing" view of technique within which destiny occasions are both convinced or doubtful. as a substitute, he indicates a simple-yet powerful-alternative: comprehend the extent of uncertainty you're dealing with in a given scenario, and you may make larger, extra expert strategic choices.Based on a global overview of the foremost technique difficulties confronted by way of over 100 best businesses, Courtney unearths how executives can improve 20/20 foresight - a view of the long run that separates what should be recognized from what cannot. whereas executives with 20/20 foresight can infrequently improve ideal forecasts of the longer term, says Courtney, they could isolate the "residual uncertainty" they face and use this perception to create aggressive virtue in present day turbulent markets. Unveiling a innovative framework for diagnosing to which of the 4 degrees of residual uncertainty a particular procedure selection corresponds, "20/20 Foresight" exhibits how readers can leverage this information to reply to 3 key strategic questions: form or adapt to uncertainty? Make strategic commitments now or later? and stick with a targeted or assorted strategy?"20/20 Foresight" additionally exhibits strategists the way to tailor each point of the decision-making procedure - from formula to implementation - to the extent of uncertainty confronted, describes the strategic-planning techniques readers can use to watch, replace, and revise techniques as valuable in risky markets, and features a toolkit for picking out, constructing, and checking out new technique recommendations - whole with directions for utilizing the fitting software to definitely the right state of affairs on the correct time. A complete method of procedure improvement lower than all attainable degrees of uncertainty and throughout every kind of industries, this is often the fundamental advisor for making tricky strategic offerings in a altering global. Hugh Courtney is an affiliate primary with the worldwide method perform at McKinsey & corporation in Washington D.C.

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Additional resources for 20 20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World

Sample text

Too often, though, boards are weak instruments of governance, having become the proverbial rubber stamp to the CEO’s ideas and seeming to fall asleep at the wheel while important problems are arising in the company. Figure 1–4 18 continued Going the Distance: Why Some Companies Dominate and Others Fail In the next chapter, we address how these eight predictable challenges emerge out of the complexity that naturally develops as successful companies grow. In Chapter 3, we discuss the notion of vital signs—early internal indicators of these challenges beginning to grow into threads of failure.

A Mindset for Change and Disruption Success in Stage 1 brings challenges, primarily in the form of growing competition. Competition breeds innovation, and innovation disrupts markets. The greater the competitive pressures in a given market, the more frequent the moments of market disruption. The companies that stay ahead and are able to compete in a changing market don’t rest on the laurels of their past success. Introducing new products based on new technology is essential. New products accomplish a number of things: They replace the company’s first-generation product, which has by now attracted competition; they extend the company’s market reach, possibly into new markets; and, at best, they disrupt the market, which allows the company to maintain control in the market.

Governance Systems At a certain size, the informal processes of culture and leadership can no longer provide sufficient guidance to assure good decision making and execution in a company. With more employees located in more places, with many more customers, and with many complex tasks to accomplish, informal mechanisms of governance can’t do enough. Successful companies need formal methods of data collection, review, and problem solving. However, as small companies grow and feel the need for infrastructure or formal governance systems, they often resist developing them.

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